El Alazan Wholesaler's In-Store Promotions During a 50-day promotional activation campaign in Mexico City, we promoted U.S. rice in collaboration with the importer Alazan across 21 stores. This resulted in the sale of 1,475 kilograms of rice. We have confirmed the sell-out data with “Tiendas DZ”, who provided us with a comparative analysis against their average sales per store. On average, our promotional campaign led to a 14% increase in their sales during the activation period.

Walmart In-Store Promotions 76 days of in-store activities were conducted through an intensive promotional activation campaign in 12 Walmart stores in the north of the country (Monterrey), including 2 Walmart Supercenters and 10 Bodega Aurrera outlets. Our primary focus was on promoting the Schettino and SOS rice brands, two major importers of U.S. rice. The implemented strategies were designed to enhance product visibility on shelves and increase their appeal to customers.

Incheon Bay arrives for SLRF to load 25k paddy rice for Mexico.

SLRF continues expansion, pouring the foundation for 7500 tons of storage.

SRPA Joins Other Ag Groups Regarding Fertilizer Duties

USRPA joined with 62 other agricultural groups sending a letter to Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo urging her to recognize the current difficulties faced by farmers as she recalculates duties on phosphate fertilizer imported from Morocco.

In February 2021 Commerce called on the International Trade Commission (ITC) to implement duties of almost 20% on imported fertilizers from Morocco. The Mosaic Company, which manufactures fertilizers used in the U.S. and abroad, had filed a petition with the Commerce Department seeking the duties. The ITC found that Morocco and Russia had unfairly subsidized fertilizer production and voted in March of that year to impose the duties on Morocco in addition to similar duties on Russian imports.

This September, the U.S. Court of International Trade ordered the ITC to reconsider its previous decision on calculating the duties. 

Commerce is expected to finalize its administrative review by November 1 and issue its remand determination by December 13.

Read the letter here.

House Speaker Uncertainty

It’s been nearly two weeks since Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) was ousted as Speaker and the House of Representatives has yet to elect his replacement. The last few weeks the House Republican Conference has scrambled to find a nominee with enough support to garner 217 votes to secure the Speakership. Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-LA) was the original nominee to be McCarthy’s replacement, but he withdrew his name from the Speaker’s race before a vote on the floor could even be called. Judiciary Chairman Jim Jordan (R-OH) followed as the second Conference nominee and failed to garner enough votes to become Speaker after two-floor votes. Jordan is now pausing, not withdrawing, his current campaign for Speaker. While there is some real and growing momentum at this point behind temporarily expanding Patrick McHenry’s power as Acting Speaker, that path forward has opposition and involves additional steps within the Conference or on the floor and is uncertain. Some of the other potential Speaker candidates being thrown into the conversation include Reps. Mike Johnson (R-LA), Kevin Hern (R-OK), Richard Hudson (R-NC), Tom Emmer (R-MN), Elise Stefanik (R-NY), Tom Cole (R-OK), Frank Lucas (R-OK). The Conference is fairly unlikely to revisit Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) at this point, but after the past two weeks, uncertainty remains there as well.

From a wider lens, House floor action remains frozen until a new Speaker can be elected, thus further creating backlog and uncertainty for the entire legislative process. Appropriations and Farm Bill reauthorization will be further delayed until this conundrum is solved.

Milling yields aren’t improving as harvest is wrapping up across the South. Field yields have remained strong, but it’s taking more paddy to meet the milled specs than originally anticipated, with the head yield settling in the lower 50s. It’s still tough to say exactly where prices will settle out, but with strong export and domestic demand, it won’t take long to transfer from a harvest-driven focus to a market-driven one. Storage and drying facilities, merchants, and mills are tempering recently harvested rice in an effort to maintain quality and hopefully milling yields. Storage space in northeast Arkansas is tight and a significant amount of rice is being stored in temporary bags on the ground. Many believe there is more rice than previously reported. The Mississippi River is near an all time low level, causing barging problems. Haiti is our largest long grain milled market and is having a significant dispute with its border nation, the Dominican Republic. The construction of a canal on the Haitian side of the Dajabon River has caused such turmoil, cross border trade between Haiti and the DR has been closed. Haiti depends on the DR for a significant amount of its food, and this dispute is putting extreme pressure on an already tenuous situation. While the DR does not provide rice to Haiti, it does provide other staples in which rice can be a substitute. More to develop on this situation, but we may see a further increase of shipments to Haiti beyond the 28 TMT increase year over year we already have on the books. In Asia, the big news is the augmented demand from Indonesia. We referenced it last week, but the implications have made its way through the market. Indonesia is the fourth largest consumer of rice in the world, and their quadrupling of imports on account of the El Niño and climate risk is putting pressure on an already tight market. With India out of the export market, Vietnam and Thailand have picked up the slack thus far. However, there is still room for a either a G2G transaction with India, or it’s possible China may come to the aid of BULOG, Indonesia’s purchasing arm. It’s important to note that of global stocks are now pegged at 167 MMT, and China accounts for 103 MMT, or just over 60%. China would have no problem committing to the volume if it becomes entirely necessary. These factors force the global market to run up against a severe timing issue. India is expected to keep their export ban in place until at least the end of Q1 2024. All the while, they are building stocks at a rate much quicker than normal, which could result in a glut of available rice sometime after March 2024. While making a marketing plan based on the current fickleness of India’s rice availability has proven dangerous, waiting for them to unwind the ban could also prove catastrophic. This leaves prices in Vietnam at $630 pmt, nearly $40 premium to Thai prices at $585 pmt. The table is set for firm pricing through the end of this calendar year and into the first part of next, but all bets are off after that. Prices in the Western Hemisphere are holding steady on account of global events as well, with U.S. export quotes remaining at $760 pmt. Uruguayan quotes rose as high as $750 pmt on tightened supplies, making U.S. the preferred supplier until the full harvest commences in March in the Southern Hemisphere. The numbers speak for themselves early this marketing year, as Long Grain milled export sales are up 46% vs. 2022 on strong business Iraq, Mexico, and Haiti. Long Grain rough numbers have buoyed 160% this year compared to last, with huge sales to Mexico, and strong demand from Nicaragua, El Salvador, Venezuela, and Ecuador.

The City of Katy Fussell Senior Center partnered with the Katy Rice Harvest Festival to host the 2nd Rice Cooking Competition on Wednesday, October 11. USRPA staff member Iris Figueroa participated as one of the judges of the event alongside Chef Casey Castro from Astor Farm to Table and private / celebrity chef, Chef Willie Holmes. Twelve entries were judged with rice as the star of the show. Congratulations to all the participants and winners.

USRPA staff members Iris Figueroa and Grace Wang participated in the Rice Education Exhibit at the 54th Annual Harvest Celebration in the Winnie-Stowell Park, Winnie, Texas last weekend. This year, in keeping with the purpose of the Rice Education, Texas Rice Council board members Ben and Debbie Hoffpauir from Hoffpauir Grain DBA HG Rice Mill joined USRPA to educate kids on the process of milling rice and gave out samples to the attendees. 2023 Ray Stoesser Memorial scholarship recipient, Gayla Rose, also joined and interacted with kids and families in all things RICE! It was a great event to educate youth. Participation in community educational events has allowed USRPA to raise awareness of rice and promote rice consumption and education.

Debbie Hoffpauir, from Hoffpauir Graine ducating the kids about the rice milling process. Make sure to check out their online store here.

2023 Ray Stoesser Memorial Scholarship recipient, Gayla Rose, and USRPA staff member Iris Figueroa.

he Texas Rice Council held a board of directors meeting on October 10 at Midway Bar-B-Q, in Katy, Texas. The Rice Council is entrusted with producer check-off dollars earmarked for promotion, education, and market development. Leaders from academia and the U.S. Rice Industry spoke on topics essential to bettering the Texas Rice Industry. Great turnout with Texas Rice Council board members, USRPA staff and USRPA industry members.

Dr. Jake Mowrer, Texas A&M Extension Associate Professor in Soil and Crop Sciences, discussed a new sustainability grant regarding nitrogen's importance for rice growth and development. For more information click here.

Dennis DeLaughter gave an update on the 2023 Market Plan.

Panel discussion and update about the Market Development program. Past, present, and future market developments were discussed. Left to right: Marcela Garcia, USRPA President and CEO; Tommy Turner, Texas Rice Council President, and USRPA Board member; Neal Stoesser, USRPA Chairman; Dennis DeLaughter, Texas Rice Council & USRPA Board Member and Galen Franz, Texas Rice Council & USRPA Board Member.

Luiz Antonio Michelini, from Agrocete, a Brazilian multinational that operates in the biological, nutrition & plant physiology, and application technology market, spoke to the attendants about the possibility of assistance in evaluating some products in 2024. For more information, you can contact him at luiz.michelini@agrocete.com

From left to right: Chris Lee, President, Black River Commodities; Dwight Roberts, USRPA Advisor; Harvey Mendoza, Grain Purchasing Manager, Walmart Nicaragua; Mollie Buckler, USRPA Chief Operating Officer; and Roger Gilmore, General Manager, Black River Commodities.Last week, US Rice Producers Association hosted a reverse trade mission for Walmart Nicaragua. The week-long trip through rice country included stops in Texas, Louisiana, Arkansas, and Missouri. Harvey Mendoza, Grain Purchasing Manager for Costa Rica and Nicaragua, represented the company on the trip. The trip gave Mendoza an in-depth look at every facet of the U.S. rice industry, from farm to export, with an emphasis on varieties and logistics that might fit the company’s needs. Texas visits at Rice Belt Warehouse, Nutrien, RiceTec, and East Bernard Rice Marketing primarily focused on examining various varieties and taste testing at every nearly every stop. In Louisiana, the group toured the brand-new South Louisiana Rice Mill and an discussed the South Louisiana Rail Facility’s capabilities. In Arkansas, the group visited with Poinsett Rice and Grain and Black River Commodities. Finally, in Missouri, the group visited Inland Cape Rice, another relatively new mill; Wheeler Farms, where they looked at on-farm storage and graded a sample; and Castor River Farms, where they discussed export possibilities. The reverse trade mission was made possible by USDA Market Access Program funding. “The trade mission is the perfect example of the public/private partnerships made possible by MAP funding,” Marcela Garcia, USRPA President & CEO, said. “This kind of trip is what makes a possible purchase go from an idea to reality. We’re happy to be the partner who helps make it happen.” Learn more about USDA’s Market Access Program here.

During a taste test, Harvey Mendoza visits with Dr. Paola Andrea Mosquera, Senior Breeder at Nutrien.

Harvey Mendoza and Johnny Hunter, Founder of Castor River Farms near Dexter, MO.

Harvey meets with Mark Pousson at the South Louisiana Rail Facility and Mill in Lacassine, LA.

A variety overview with Jay Davis of East Bernard Rice Marketing and USRPA Board Member Tommy Turner in East Bernard, TX.

The USDA’s WASDE was published this week, sending a bullish signal into the U.S. rice world by dropping carryover by 1.3 million cwt, or 5%. Last month’s report called for 24.1 million cwt of carryover, while this month it calls for only 22.8 million cwt on increased exports. The new crop export forecast was raised by 1 million cwt to 86 million for long grain rice because of strong early sales to Mexico, Central America, and Iraq. Also of note is a decrease of 14 pounds/acre in the forecast yield for the U.S. rice harvest; we will know more about the field and milling yields within the month. The global outlook from the WASDE is sideways, calling for increased supplies, consumption, and trade right in line with last month. Ending stocks on a global scale are largely unchanged, resting at 167.5 million tons, which remains the lowest level in six years. The October FAO rice price index reported an average of 141.7 points for September, a drop of 0.5% from August, though still 25% higher than this time last year. This slight decline came from Japonica and Aromatic prices, where full crops in California and the southern U.S., along with strong supply from Australia resulted in medium grain indexes dropping 11%. On the broader long grain market, however, those prices through September sustained their post-Indian export ban pricing with Vietnam and Thailand both sourcing rice for prices in excess of $600 pmt. We expect to see the FAO index drop significantly in next months’ report, as the broader Indica market has settled down, and is currently trading now below $600 pmt. On a calendar year, it is nice to see that Iraq is helping to pick up the slack from exports to Haiti, Mexico, and Japan. Our top export market through July is Haiti with 208 MT, followed by Mexico at 184 MT and Japan with 158 MT. Last year through the same period, Mexico was on top with 352 MT, then Haiti with 264 MT, and Japan with 205 MT. The difference maker is that Iraq has 132 MT this year, whereas they had zero last year. A strong harvest and resulting supply will help the export figures bounce back to these key markets, as well as to some of our smaller markets in the coming months. With Mercosur largely out of the market until the new harvest, paddy importers are focused on the U.S. supply. Over the past few weeks, the US Rice Producers Association has hosted buyers visits from Ecuador, Mexico, Guatemala, Nicaragua, and Guyana while numerous others in the Western Hemisphere have inquired about the U.S. crop. The low level of the Mississippi River is a concern that has the attention of export merchants and buyers. South Louisiana Rail Facility continues an active export season with the loading of the above vessel destined for Mexico with 25,000 tons of rough rice. In Asia, another tender from BULOG, Indonesia’s rice purchasing arm, has kept Viet and Thai markets rolling. At the start of the year, Indonesia was expected to procure no more than 2 MMT. But as the bans in India unfolded and climate risk shined a light on food security, the country has taken major steps and is expected to amass nearly 4 MMT of rice this year, fully doubling the originally anticipated purchases. While this is all rice that will come from the Far East, it keeps pressure on already high global prices and helps to buoy prices in the Western Hemisphere. On the back of BULOG’s announcement to procure more rice, Viet prices jumped back up to $615 pmt, nearly $35 pmt over Thai prices, currently at $585 pmt. The one wild card that could come to fruition is a G2G deal between India and Indonesia, which could soften prices out of Vietnam and the entire complex. If we see that happen, it could be the prelude to a relaxing or complete removal of the export ban.