Harvest is rounding the corner to completion in all states but California, where they took a huge jump forward in harvest completion because the rice is drying quicker in the field than normal. In Mississippi and Arkansas, there are emerging reports of lost or delayed acres due to Hurricane Francine, but the total amount is yet to be determined. We don’t have any significant changes in milling yields to report this week, but the real story would be the surging harvest of medium grain rice in California. Early field yields are reporting nearly 10% off from historical norms on the West Coast, which is puzzling many of the producers in the state. The below-average yield is attributed to excessive heat during the flowering stage for the early-maturing varieties. Despite these low field yields, milling yields are reported to be strong, but there is nothing firm to hold onto yet. Producers are hoping that the later maturing varieties will return to a more average yield, but virtually none of those fields have been cut as of this writing. A USDA GAIN report on Mexico was published this week. Post forecasts that Mexico’s milled rice production will increase 5% up to 160,000 metric tons (81,544 acres) based on higher-than-average precipitation. Post forecasts imports to decrease by only 2% to 840,000 MT on account of the increased production. U.S. rice is estimated to remain the primary source of rough rice for Mexico because of its proximity, reliability, and price competitiveness. Milled rice, now accounting for nearly one-third of Mexico’s imports, is a bit more diversified with suppliers coming from the U.S. (47%), Thailand (24%), and Uruguay (22%). It is expected that Mexico’s consumption will increase by 1% this year, up to 990,000 MT. All things considered, it is positive news and great to finally have a full crop to send to Mexico. In Asia, Thai prices continue to soften, now down to $550 pmt, while Viet prices have held closer to $580 pmt. The big news this week, however, is the awarding of the BULOG tender. It was Indonesia’s 8th tender, and it went to Myanmar, Vietnam, Thailand, and the majority to Pakistan. The demand side of the equation has been choppy, so this surge in demand didn’t have a material impact on price direction in those markets. Paki price is reported at $535 pmt, similar to last week, and down 9% from three months ago. On the ground, cash prices in Texas are $15.50-$16.50. Louisiana is reporting $14.80-$15.20. Mississippi, Arkansas, and Missouri are showing bids of $14.50 and ask of $15.55. The weekly USDA Export Sales report shows net sales of 55,300 MT this week, down 32% from the previous week, but up 6% from the prior 4-week average. Exports of 59,400 MT were down 33% from the previous week, but up 18% from the prior 4-week average.

JEFFERSON CITY, Mo. – On behalf of Missouri rice producers, Governor Mike Parson proclaimed Sept. to be Rice Month in Missouri. The proclamation was presented to Missouri Rice Research & Merchandising Council members. “Missouri is growing food for a growing world, and Missouri rice producers are proof,” Governor Mike Parson said. Ranking fourth in the nation for rice production, we are proud to provide a versatile Missouri-made product to consumers across the country and the globe.”

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USRPA hosted buyers from Mexico who traveled to Texas to visit industry members and meet with rice farmers. Once again this is a direct result of the USRPA’s market development programs and the annual Rice Market & Technology Convention.

USRPA Board member and producer Galen Franz hosts Tommy Turner, Texas Rice Council President and USRPA board member, and Daniel Guillen and Manuel Guillen from Mexico for tour of his farm near Victoria, TX.  USRPA President and CEO, Marcela Garcia, and Manuel Guillen, doing a taste test of different rice varieties at Hoffpauir Grain DBA HG Rice Mill in Bay City, TX.

Meeting with the team at Rice Belt Warehouse in El Campo, TX. USRPA's, Western Hemisphere Marketing Manager, Iris Figueroa, joins Mexico buyers at Slade Schiurring farm in El Campo, TX.

Visiting RiceTec in Alvin, TX joined by Rusty Bautista, RiceTec's Senior Grain Quality Scientist. USRPA member Pam West and her team, welcomes Mexico delegation to Brookshire Drying Co., Inc. Rice Drying & Storage.

Senate Agriculture Committee Holds a Hearing on School Breakfast and Lunch Programs

This week the Senate Agriculture Committee held a hearing on school nutrition programs. During the hearing, senators agreed on the importance of school nutrition programs and the need to improve them. Republicans focused on providing program flexibility, especially for rural areas, and prioritizing domestically produced foods. Democrats asked the witnesses about the stigma associated with free meal programs and the quality of food provided through school nutrition programs. A recording of the hearing can be found here.

Appropriations Update

On Wednesday, the House Republicans’ government six-month funding plan failed on the House floor. Also included in the bill was a measure to require proof of citizenship to register to vote in federal elections. The bill failed on a 202-220 vote, with three Democrats voting in support and 14 Republicans voting against the bill. House Republicans are now considering a plan that would fund the government at current levels for three months. Senate Democrats are also expected to release their short-term funding plan soon. As of current, the expectation is still that Congress will be able to pass a measure to avoid a government shutdown ahead of the September 30 deadline. 

With harvest well over halfway done in all states except California, we are getting a better handle on field and milling yields. Arkansas, now over 75% complete, is reporting head yields coming in closer to 52-54, and totals not often breaking 70. Overall not terrible news, but still leaves room for optimism. It is similar in Mississippi and other states, with reports being closer to 55/68. Field yields in Louisiana aren’t ideal, nor is the storm damage, but there is hope that the second crop will be better than the first. We don’t say this to only report bad news, as overall the harvest is good and prices are competitive with other exporters. The WASDE report released last week had a few items worth further mention in light of the current harvest. First is that since the August report, U.S. prices have decreased by $33 pmt, down to $739 pmt in expectation of plentiful supplies from the ensuing harvest. In line with the price drop for U.S. long grain, Uruguayan quotes fell only slightly to $796 pmt, which is still the highest among major exporters in the West. The market dynamic in Mexico is also in flux as a result of COVID-19 and anti-inflationary policies from years ago. This isn’t a surprise and something we have chronicled in the Rice Advocate since the initial anti-inflation policy was implemented in May of 2022. The effect, as feared, is that Mexico now has a more diversified supply of rice importers, and it is also changing the mix of paddy vs milled imports. The suspension of import tariffs that was broadened to include milled rice in January of 2023 has resulted in nearly 1/3 of imports to Mexico now being milled rice. Suppliers for all types of rice to Mexico now include Brazil, Uruguay, Paraguay, and even Thailand more recently. Having a quality product, competitive prices, and strong relationships will be key in sustaining this relationship long term. India is making a lot of headlines this week, as more news is leaking out of the country regarding its export ban. Some can’t believe it’s taken India this long, as a recent USDA Grain report forecasts the 2024/25 Indian rice production to be another near record of 139.0 million metric tons! It appears buyers are postponing orders from Vietnam or Thailand in hopes of India easing their non-basmati export ban. It is unclear if this is because there is actual policy coming out of India to green-light exports, or if it is just being assumed because there simply won’t be room to store another crop domestically that is set to arrive in October. U.S. long grain hasn’t historically competed directly with Indian rice. Consistent G2G deals over the last year have muted the coming blow, and if India does open the floodgates, there is concern over what that will do to the global price of rice. On the ground, prices in Texas are $15.50-$16.50. Louisiana is reporting $14.80-$15.20. In Mississippi, Arkansas, and Missouri, we are reporting a $14.50 bid and a $15.55 ask. The weekly USDA Export Sales report shows net sales of 81,100 MT this week, up 31% from the previous week and up noticeably from the prior 4-week average. Much of this was medium and short grain. Exports of 89,100 MT were up 46% from the previous week and up noticeably from the prior 4-week average, also heavy on the medium and short grain.

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The group at the Port of Caucedo

USRPA joined the Texas Department of Agriculture on a trade mission to the Dominican Republic last week. TDA Assistant Commissioner Dan Hunter led a trade mission, which also included representatives from the beef, grain sorghum, produce, and distribution industries. The trip coincided with Hub Camara, a business-to-business networking event led by the Santo Domingo Chamber of Commerce (CCPSD) and the Export & Investment Center of the Dominican Republic (ProDominicana) where trade mission participants were able to meet with buyers from throughout Latin America. “It was an honor to represent the Texas rice industry and USRPA on this trip,” Mollie Buckler, COO of USRPA, said. “We had the opportunity to meet key players in the DR, including importers, processors, port staff, and government officials. The entire group left the trip excited about the possibilities to come in the region.”

Left to Right: Gustavo Ruiz, Marketing & Merchandising Director, Prodal; Mollie Buckler, Chief Operating Officer, USRPA; Luis Viyella, President, Prodal; and Dan Hunter, Assistant Commissioner, Texas Department of Agriculture.

Visits from key buyers from several Latin American markets this month are a direct result of the USRPA’s market development programs and the annual Rice Market & Technology Convention. With the current U.S. rice harvest in full swing, despite an untimely Hurricane Francine, the USRPA is constantly updating buyers regarding field and milling yields, variety development, and opportunities for both milled and paddy rice. Within one month, USRPA will have hosted buyer visits from Venezuela, Costa Rica, Mexico, Colombia, and Nicaragua. National Rice Month has really kicked off the harvest season!

Jay Davis of East Bernard Rice Marketing discuss characteristics of Texas grown varieties to Stefano DiLanzo from GSI-Venezuela, a major importer of paddy rice. A Labor Day visit from GSI proved very productive due to the participation of from left Tommy Turner (USRPA board & President Texas Rice Council), Jay Davis (East Bernard Rice Marketing), Stefano DiLanzo from Venezuela and Galen Franz, Texas rice farmer and seed producer who serves on various Texas boards in addition to the USRPA. Thank you to Tommy and Galen for the test cooking session!

Mark Pousson of the South Louisiana Rail Facility explains rice farming and marketing conditions to Stefano DiLanzo. The SLRF has loaded vessels for GSI in the Port of Lake Charles. Stefano discusses Louisiana varieties with Don Gauthier, Chairman of the SLRF board.

Ryan Carwell, manager for Poinsett Rice & Grain explains barge loading and logistics on the Mississippi River to Stefano DiLanzo.

From left, Bill Weeks (Southern Brown Rice, Weiner, AR), Ryan Carwell (Poinsett Rice & Grain), and from Costa Rica are Ricardo Castro (Grupo Pelon), Federico Ramirez (Demasa) and Antonio Martínez (CIPA) during a tour of Southern Brown Rice. The discussion of tempering newly harvested rice is of great importance to buyers due to the effect on milling yields as well as cooking quality.

Despite the hurricane rains yesterday, Missouri rice farmers and board members Mitchell Thomas, Eric Hover, and Alex Clark along with Mollie Buckler (COO for USRPA) hosted a dinner for the Costa Rican buyers that allowed for an interesting discussion on the details of rice farming, storage, variety selection, marketing, contract growing, etc. that the “Ticos” found extremely valuable.

Rice Producers Continue Push for Improved Farm Bill

Following up on communications among rice producers and their elected representatives at home during Congress’ annual August District Work Period, representatives of USRPA and a long list of other farm organizations renewed advocacy in Congress this week to push for a new and improved farm bill.

More than 250 Organizations Call for a New Farm Bill

On Monday September 9, both the House and Senate returned to Washington, DC for three weeks before the end of the fiscal year. Waiting in Congress’ inbox was a letter signed by USRPA and more than 250 other agricultural organizations “in support of advancing a meaningful farm bill in 2024 that addresses worsening conditions in farm country. … It is imperative Congress act before year’s end to strengthen farm policy for America’s farmers.” The letter goes on to explain “Farmers are struggling, and the decline in the farm economy is real. Estimated 2024 net farm income for U.S. agriculture is projected to be down $55.61 billion, a more than 27% drop from the 2022 level, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA). Despite these factors, USDA projects that federal support for production agriculture in 2024 will be at its lowest since 1982. …Congress must act before year’s end to strengthen farm policy for America’s farmers, and we remain committed to assisting in this effort.” The entire letter and its signatory organizations can be found here.

Rice Producers and Others Take the Campaign to the Hill

Coinciding with Congress’ return to DC and the delivery of the ag industry letter calling for a new farm bill, representatives of USRPA and many other farm organizations were on the Hill urging Congress to pass a farm bill this year. Currently, the 2018 Farm Bill is operating under a one-year extension which expires at the end of September. The outreach is intended to continue to encourage Congress to act on a farm bill reauthorization and to highlight current farm conditions. A recent USDA report forecasts a 6.8% decline in net farm income in 2024. The income decline coupled with high input costs will exacerbate credit needs. Bankers, commodity groups, and general farm organizations were participating in the outreach outlining their concerns including the need for an improved farm bill, challenging credit conditions, and the need for disaster assistance.

Information gathered at the meetings indicate that the outlook for completing a farm bill before Congress recesses at the end of the month is highly unlikely. The Congressional schedule is short and Members and Senators are anxious to return home and get on the campaign trail for their final push before the November elections. Although pressure has been building on Congress to complete the farm bill, it is generally acknowledged that although September 30 is when the current extension expires, many in Congress view the “real” deadline as the end of 2024. As of now, it is expected that the farm bill will expire (for the second year in a row) at the end of this month.

September Congressional Goal is to Avoid a Government Shutdown

Despite the languishing of the Farm Bill since it expired in September 2023, Congress’ main priority during its September “work period” will be passing a continuing resolution to temporarily fund the government and avoid a government shutdown at the end of the month. Negotiations will continue as the shutdown deadline approaches, and there is still optimism that a shutdown can be avoided. Once that is accomplished, Senators and House Members will vacate Washington to return to their districts ahead of the election this November.

Farm Bill Consideration in the “Lame Duck” Congressional Session?

Congress will need to consider whether to extend the current farm bill, write an improved farm bill reauthorization, and/or to provide other farm assistance when they return after the November elections, during the lame duck session. Whether an extension or full reauthorization gains serious consideration will largely be determined by the dynamics resulting from the November election. We now have a Republican House of Representatives with a Democratic Senate and Democratic executive branch. A change in control for any of these institutions will dictate a dynamic which may ease the path for a reauthorization or make it more difficult.

Whatever the situation, USRPA and its representatives will continue pushing for the enactment of an improved farm bill safety net and enhanced support for rice producers in our farm and export programs.

The U.S. rice market has remained fairly insulated from the shocks taking place around the globe. As a result, significant market updates have been few and far between in recent weeks regarding rice prices. That has largely been because of steady domestic business, along with Haiti, which has been procuring milled rice at a steady rate. However, just this week the U.S. State Department advised all Americans to leave Haiti immediately by whatever means necessary because of increased gang activity. We hope this doesn’t devolve into the situation we saw directly after the assassination of President Jovenel Moise in July 2021, but recent reports predict that gangs control nearly 80% of Port-au-Prince. The slowing of shipments to Haiti just as new crops become available is not ideal timing. Harvest is near wrap up in Louisiana and Texas, with now reporting 89% complete. Arkansas jumped over the halfway mark this week, jumping from 39 to 56% since last week’s crop progress report. Mississippi is showing 67% harvested, while Missouri is at 28%. California’s earliest harvesters got in the fields this week, now reporting 2% harvested. Crop condition continues to hold strong, with 80% at good or excellent. India remains a confusing mess, which is translating into increased prices and panic for importers and exporters alike. As of this week, the white rice ban remains intact, a 20% tariff on parboiled rice has been imposed, and a minimum export price for Basmati of $1,200 pmt has been imposed, all while the broken rice export ban that has been in place since September 2022 may be relaxing a bit as the trade is talking about sales of brokens to some West African countries. All in all, confusion reigns in the Near and Far East, while the market is “fair to middling” here in North America. It is now anticipated that these export restrictions from India will remain intact into the first quarter of 2025, or at least until the election cycle is complete. A recent GAIN report on Costa Rican rice shows that U.S. rough rice exports have plummeted following the Costa Rican government’s tariff rate reduction on imported rice from August 2022. Exports of U.S. rice to Costa Rica have fallen a staggering 98% YTD through June 2023. The attrition the U.S. industry has lost to South America has been widely reported here, where Brazil, Uruguay, and Argentina have been the beneficiaries. This loss was only exacerbated by the tariff rate reduction policy, with the true numbers just now being realized. The reduction of rice acreage over the last decade in Costa Rica would indicate a prime market for U.S. rice. Unfortunately, recent events make the opposite true. The reduction of acres in Costa Rica is highlighted by the fact that in 2013 they produced 163,000 acres of rice; projections for this year are as low as 37,000 acres. This reduction increases their reliance on imports, of which the U.S. needs to claw back its market share. Great news on the Export Sales report, with net sales of 82,300 MT, up a whopping 162%, largely to Mexico (57,300 MT) and Haiti (21,000 MT). Exports of 64,600 MT, up huge from last week also were primarily to Mexico (48,100 MT), Haiti (7,100 MT), and Venezuela (5,900 MT).