This week’s rice market update comes with a side of drama — because what’s global trade without a little political spice? While tariffs tiptoe their way back into headlines, the real showstopper is the very public breakup between Donald Trump and Elon Musk. Once the poster boys of free-market bravado and social media swagger, their bromance has officially soured. What does this mean for rice? Maybe nothing... maybe everything. When the world’s loudest voices clash, markets twitch — especially when tech, trade, and policy start to tangle. Buckle up, because it’s going to be a weird growing season. So with planting and emergence largely behind us, we turn our sights more directly to crop condition across the rice-producing states. The good news is that we are 75% in the Good to Excellent condition this year, compared to 77% last year. It is still too early to make any prognostications, but not having any significant weather events early on is always a plus. That being said, weather has caused an obvious reduction in the concentrated area of long grain in northeast Arkansas, with an estimated 250,000 acres going to preventive planting. Keep your eye on the weather throughout the northern rice delta as the forecast calls for wet, stormy conditions. Prices on the ground here in the U.S. for any scant amounts of old crop are being reported with Texas at $12.50-$13. Louisiana is showing $13/cwt, while Mississippi, Arkansas, and Missouri are reporting in at $11.25-$12/cwt. Many of the mills are entering a summer slowdown, while others are busy milling the Iraq business so desperately needed to keep liquidity present. Check out June's FAO Rice Update here. In Asia, prices are still dismal, but at least steady. Thailand and Vietnam are both competing in the $400 pmt +/- $5, while India is sub-$400 at $390 pmt this week. Business is relatively steady in the Far East, with many destinations ordering at ease because of the low prices with no threat of an increase on the horizon. The weekly USDA Export Sales report shows net sales of 58,100 MT this week, down 31% from the previous week, but up 17% from the prior 4-week average. Increases primarily for South Korea (22,200 MT), unknown destinations (17,500 MT), Saudi Arabia (9,000 MT), Haiti (8,000 MT), and Japan (1,000 MT) were offset by reductions for Guatemala (1,200 MT). Exports of 68,500 MT were up a whopping 407% from the previous week and up 52% from the prior 4-week average.

Trump Administration Releases Preliminary MAHA ReportOn Thursday, the Trump Administration’s Make America Healthy Again (MAHA) Commission released a report addressing the pressing childhood chronic disease crisis in this country and outlines government-wide efforts to help ‘Make Our Children Health Again.’ Spearheaded by Human and Health Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr., the report largely attributes blame for the current health crisis likely due to ultra-processed foods, exposure to chemicals, lack of exercise, stress, and overprescription of drugs. Throughout the report, the MAHA Commission acknowledges the significant role played by American farmers in the agricultural sector, noting their contribution to ensuring food abundance and affordability. It states that mechanization, synthetic fertilizers, and industrial-scale farming has elevated the agricultural output of the United States, transforming it into the largest food exporter globally. In the chemical exposure portion of the report, pesticides are recognized as essential for crop protection and as a critical component of maintaining a healthy, abundant, and affordable food supply, which supports American farmers and the MAHA agenda. However, concerns regarding potential links between pesticides and adverse health effects, especially in children, were raised and highlighted through the citing of various studies. Additionally, the report reiterates some of Kennedy and the MAHA movement’s criticisms about the role ultra-processed foods, added sugars, food dyes and additives play in American’s diets. Overall, the report suggests a shift toward a whole-food diet and touts the nutritional benefits of foods like whole milk, dairy, beef, leafy greens, legumes and more. Looking ahead, the Commission is expected to build upon the report and form a federal strategy over the next 100 days that is likely to include more definitive policy recommendations. You can find the full MAHA report here. House Passes ‘One Big, Beautiful Bill’ Reconciliation PackageEarly Thursday morning, the House of Representatives managed to pass its budget reconciliation bill by a vote of 215-214-1, after surviving a contentious 21-hour House Rules Committee markup to advance it to the floor. The bill passed with majority support from House Republicans, excluding Reps. Thomas Massie (R-KY) and Warren Davidson (R-OH) who voted no along with all present Democrats, Rep. Andy Harris (R-MD) who voted present, and Reps. Andrew Garbarino (R-NY) and David Schweikert (R-AZ) who abstained from voting altogether. The bill H.R.1 – the One Big Beautfiul Bill Act largely reflects President Trump’s fiscal policy agenda and includes tax reforms, spending adjustments, and policy changes across various sectors. Specifically, the bill extends the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, introduces new tax breaks and exemptions such as lower individual tax rates and increased standard deductions. From the lens of the agricultural sector, the package expands and permanently extends 199A deductions, restores bonus depreciation, increases Section 179 expensing, and raises the estate tax exemption level. Acting as offsets, the bill also enacts cuts to social programs, including Medicaid and the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP). Within the Agriculture Committee’s jurisdiction and over a 10-year period, the bill cuts $294.6 billion mainly from the nutrition title, while also reinvesting $58.792 billion into vital farm bill programs and titles. Notably, the bill increases Title I reference prices for rice, enhances crop insurance, and provides doubled funding for trade promotion programs like Foreign Market Development (FMD) and Market Access Program (MAP). Now, the House reconciliation package heads to the Senate for consideration where Republicans hold a narrow 53-47 majority. USDA to Dismantle Several Advisory CommitteesOn Monday, the Federal Register released a notice that the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) intends to disband seven advisory committees aligning with President Trump’s Executive Order (EO), “Commencing the Reduction of the Federal Bureaucracy,” which works to minimize waste, fraud, and abuse by reducing federal bureaucracy. The named committees on the chopping block include:Advisory Committee on Agriculture StatisticsAdvisory Committee on Universal Cotton StandardsFruit and Vegetable Industry Advisory CommitteeNational Advisory Committee on Meat and Poultry InspectionNational Advisory Committee on Microbiological Criteria for FoodsNational Wildlife Services Advisory CommitteeNorthwest Forest Plan Area Advisory CommitteeThe notice also acknowledged several advisory committees that the Secretary had initially flagged for termination under memorandum, “Restructuring of Federal Advisory Committees within the Department of Agriculture,” that now have been paused until further notice. Those paused committees include:Agricultural Technical Advisory Committee for Trade in Animal and Animal ProductsAgricultural Technical Advisory Committee for Trade in Fruits and VegetablesAgricultural Technical Advisory Committee for Trade in Grains, Feed, Oilseeds, and Planting SeedsAgricultural Technical Advisory Committee for Trade in Processed FoodsAgricultural Technical Advisory Committee for Trade in Sweeteners and Sweetener ProductsAgricultural Technical Advisory Committee for Trade in Tobacco, Cotton, Peanuts, and HempBlack Hills National Forest Advisory BoardGeneral Conference Committee of the National Poultry Improvement PlanFor more information, you can find the notice posted to the Federal Register here.

Rice Farmers Need Favorable Prices

There has been growing frustration in the market over delays in USDA reporting, and the impact this is having on pricing is substantial. This year in particular, planted acreage estimates appear to be significantly overstated, placing heavy pressure on prices for paddy rice still in first hands. To bring more clarity, we’ve surveyed planting expectations across key rice-producing states and taken a conservative but realistic approach to estimating total long-grain acreage losses. In reality, the shortfall could be even greater.

As the table illustrates, by not adjusting for lost acreage in this month’s WASDE, current production projections are overstated by at least 275,000 acres, or roughly 24 million cwt. This disconnect is materially affecting growers still trying to sell and mills attempting to manage inventory. While the true numbers will eventually surface, for many, it may be too late to influence favorable pricing. With planting largely in the books and on par with the four-year average of 87%, we turn now to initial crop quality reports. As of the May 18 USDA report, 28% of the overall rice is rated Excellent, 51% rated Good, 18% Fair, 2% Poor, and 1% Very Poor. It’s still early to place too much stock in these numbers, but a positive sign that nearly 80% of the crop is rated Good or Excellent. In Asia, market conditions remain soft. Demand out of Indonesia has cooled, pushing Indian prices as low as $385/MT, with Vietnam and Thailand holding around $400/MT but showing little upward momentum. Iraq continues to fulfill its MOU obligations with U.S. suppliers despite the pricing disadvantage, driven largely by geopolitical ties. Iraq is now the second-largest buyer of U.S. milled rice, trailing only Haiti. There are encouraging signals that Iraq may remain a consistent buyer in the coming years, though formal G2G agreements are still pending. This week’s USDA Export Sales report shows net sales of 26,600 MT, down 11% from the previous week and 29% below the prior 4-week average. Exports totaled 51,800 MT, down 28% from the previous week and 4% from the 4-week average, reflecting the broader slowdown in market momentum.

With over 30 countries and over 250 companies already registered, RMTC 2025 is set to be a truly international event, bringing together leaders from every segment of the rice industry. This strong global presence reflects the event’s importance as a networking, innovation, and market insight hub. We sincerely thank all our sponsors and exhibitors for their invaluable support. Your commitment makes RMTC 2025 possible, and we’re excited to showcase your contributions to the future of the rice industry. Please Note: The Rice Advocate will be on hiatus next week as our staff will be all hands on deck in Miami. Our next edition will be Friday, June 6.

Register for RMTC

Companies Registred

The RMTC 2025 program agenda is packed with insightful presentations and networking opportunities that bring together key players from across the global rice industry. Attendees can look forward to sessions covering the latest trends in rice production, trade dynamics, sustainability initiatives, and technological innovations.

Register for RMTC

Companies Registred

Reserve Your Room

Sponsor & Exhibitor Information

Last week, the US Rice Producers Association (USRPA), together with our promotions team in Guatemala, organized a series of activities where moms were the central focus to commemorate Mother's Day. To culminate the week of celebrations, on Saturday, May 10, Mother’s Day in Guatemala, we cooked a giant paella to celebrate and honor all mothers. The heartfelt event took place at Eskala Roosevelt, a popular local shopping mall, and brought families together around a flavorful rice dish. It was a joyful occasion that underscored the importance of love, family, and tradition, while highlighting the cultural richness and versatility of rice as a staple in celebrations. Iris Figueroa, Western Hemisphere Marketing Manager for USRPA, emphasized the value of these initiatives, stating: “Incorporating these kinds of cultural and family-centered activities into our promotional programs is essential. They not only strengthen our connection with consumers but also create memorable experiences around rice, showcasing its role in cherished moments and traditions.”

House Ag Advances Reconciliation Bill Out of Committee Starting Tuesday night and lasting until Wednesday evening, the House Agriculture Committee held a marathon markup of its budget reconciliation text, complying with the instructions given by the House Budget Committee in H. Con. Res. 14 Section 2001(b)(1) to cut a net of $230 billion within the Committee’s jurisdiction. After nearly a 15-hour process, the Committee ended up reporting the bill favorably out of Committee on a party-line vote of 29-25. While the Committee was instructed to cut $230 billion, the bill reflected a score closer to $300 billion in cuts in order to reinvest the additional $60-70 billion in savings across all titles of the farm bill except for Title IV (Nutrition), where most cuts were focused. Republicans defended the rescissions to the nutrition title, claiming that the increasing administrative costs of the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) should require state governments to become more responsible when administering and regulating food assistance programs, specifically with regard to enforcing work requirements. Additionally, Republicans highlighted that modernizing the farm safety net for farmers and ranchers must be at the forefront of the reconciliation bill. Democrats heavily criticized the Republicans’ bill, arguing that the SNAP program helps families access food and reducing the nutrition title’s funding would decrease benefits and cause many to go hungry, and emphasized that many states would not be able to adequately cover the cost share of the program. Moreover, Democrats stated that sufficiently funding SNAP would increase food demand, benefiting agricultural producers. From a commodity lens, the bill included increases to reference prices and enhancements to the crop insurance title. Additionally, funding for trade promotion priorities such as the Market Access Program (MAP) and Foreign Market Development (FMD) program was doubled, as they were in the last Congress’s farm bill. In addition to Ag, the House Ways and Means Committee advanced its bill extending the provisions in the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) as well as several other favorable agricultural tax-related measures. Now that all the Committees given reconciliation instructions have held their individual markups, the House Budget Committee will assemble and ready the bill for consideration. Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) has indicated that he intends to have the House Rules Committee consider the bill next week, with the hopes of being able to then call a vote on the House floor before the Memorial Day recess. Many Republican holdouts remain, making the bill’s pathway forward towards passage uncertain. You can find the text for the Committee’s print here, and can watch part 1 of the markup here and part 2 here. White House Announces Trade Deals in the Works with China and the U.K. Last weekend, talks regarding a potential U.S./China trade agreement began to surface. On Monday, the White House announced that a potential trade deal with China is in the works that would significantly reduce the current tariffs on trade for 90 days while negotiations between the two countries continue. With this, the U.S. plans to reduce its reciprocal tariffs on China from 145% to 30%, while China is cutting its tariffs on US imports from 125% to 10%. The temporary de-escalation of these tariffs aims to further negotiations toward a more comprehensive trade deal between the US and China. Also recently, President Trump announced a trade agreement between the U.S. and the U.K., with the intent of strengthening relationships and market access for American agriculture. President Trump and U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer held talks at the end of last week and reached an agreement on the new deal, which is expected to be finalized in the coming weeks. It is understood that the deal will aim to streamline the customs process for U.S. agriculture, eliminating many of the non-tariff trade barriers that restrict U.S. agriculture’s access to the U.K. market. These negotiations do not impact the overall 10% tariff on British imports, which remains the baseline, like many other countries following the April 2 announcement.

Planting is wrapping up in some states, while it’s going full speed in California. Overall, we are still ahead of schedule, and the total acres lost is looking to be closer to 300,000 acres in total, the majority coming from Arkansas where the intense flooding took out a majority of these acres. More direct impact in the coming weeks on total acreage loss expectations. It remains difficult to find any cash prices, and futures have been on the doldrums too. Recent USDA reports indicate a lack of accurate and transparent stocks and made no adjustment for acreage in the Delta due to preventive planting and constant wet weather.  It's raining now in northeast Arkansas and southeast Missouri, and severe storms are predicted for the days ahead. With a conservative acreage and production reduction, combined with a confirmed lower stock report reducing old crop carryover, ending stocks would be reduced significantly even with conservative numbers. We realize the USDA requires solid data, as they say. Lower supply certainly supports price and the USDA for now appears to be saying higher supplies are ahead of us. This market and especially rice farmers need this information in the marketplace. These current market conditions are the most difficult since the 1980s. The large crop in South America is putting a weight on new U.S. crop expectations. A number of recent sales out of Argentina, Paraguay, and particularly Uruguay have been confirmed to Mexico and Central America. Foreign exchange with Brazil is keeping those prices $10-$12 per ton FOB above its neighbors for now.The most recent Grain: World Markets and Trade report shows global rice production is projected to hit a record 538.7 million tons, up 1.0 million tons from last year. The increase is led by India, which maintains its position as the top producer for a second straight year, thanks to strong government support. China is also expected to slightly increase output. Together, these two countries contribute over 50% of the world’s rice production. Global consumption is also forecast to reach a record 538.8 million tons, up 6.1 million tons from the prior year. India’s consumption will hit a record 125.0 million tons, supported by government food programs and limited use in ethanol production. In China, consumption remains steady, with low feed use and cheaper coarse grains influencing demand. Growing populations are driving increased consumption in Sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia, and the Middle East. Global rice ending stocks are forecast nearly unchanged at 185.1 million tons, with China and India holding 80% of reserves due to public stockpiling. U.S. ending stocks are projected to rise 6% thanks to higher beginning stocks, while China and Thailand also expect stock gains. In the Western Hemisphere, imports are expected to increase modestly. The U.S. will likely import more due to demand for specific varieties, and Mexico’s imports are driven by population growth and reduced supply of alternative grains. Brazil, however, may reduce imports as domestic prices stay competitive.

The weekly USDA Export Sales report shows net sales of 29,900 mt this week, down 49% from the previous week and 11% from the prior 4-week average. Exports of 71,900 MT were up 67% from the previous week and 28% from the prior 4-week average.