with Lieutenant Governor Mike Kehoe

Members of the Missouri Rice Council had a productive series of meetings at the State Capitol yesterday, culminating in Senator Jason Bean's exceptional Taste of the South event. The council is grateful to have such a great delegation representing southeast Missouri in the Missouri legislature, championing the interests of agriculture.

with Senator Jason Bean

with Representative Jamie Burger

USRPA is pleased to welcome Colby Branch as the new Marketing Specialist for USDA-FAS. Colby brings a wealth of experience, most recently serving as the Director for Agricultural Affairs for the Office of the US Trade Representative. We look forward to working with Colby in promoting and advocating for U.S. rice around the world.

Senators Boozman and Booker Call for Release of Food Aid

On Wednesday, Senators John Boozman (D-AR) and Cory Booker (D-NJ) wrote a letter to Secretary of Agriculture Tom Vilsack and USAID Administrator Samantha Power expressing concern over delays in the emergency purchase and shipment of in-kind global food assistance. Last fall, USDA announced it would distribute $1 billion to address global hunger; however, no additional action has been announced since then. In the letter, the Senators noted that there is no shortage of need and called on USDA and USAID to finalize their plans to administer this funding. A copy of the letter can be found here.

The market looks much like it did last week — which is great news! Exports continue to race ahead of last year, prices on the ground are firm, and expectations for a crop above 3 million acres for next year remain attainable. Despite the large increase, medium grain acres in the southern states are expected to drop because California is coming back in full force of its historical production. Reports from the West Coast indicate that without a late weather event that would initiate preventative planting, another crop over 500,000 acres is all but guaranteed. With planting decisions in the south being made at the moment, California farmers have until June 1 to plant. It would appear that long grain will be the safer play in the coming season, with the hope that growing conditions and quality will improve. Cash prices have remained firm as rice in first hands is dwindling in some regions. Prices in Texas punctuate this point where prices are as high as $19/cwt, but largely because supply is running so low for spot market purchases. Louisiana is reporting at just over $18.50/cwt, while Mississippi, Arkansas, and Missouri are all at $18.25/cwt. In Asia, the price correction in Thailand continues with reports now pegging prices from the origin just below $620 pmt. Vietnam remains more competitive at prices closer to $615 pmt, but the convergence is expected and welcomed; it was strange seeing such a gap between the two countries, and even more so with India out of the market. The futures market was active this week, with average daily volume jumping 172% to 2,348. Open interest was sideways at 12,133 for a 1.87% increase.U.S. Export Sales 2/23/2024

The Texas Rice Council event, Texas Rice Roundup, once again proved to be a popular gathering among Texas farmers for the second year in a row. Here's a big thank you to everyone who is contributing to the rice industry and showing support for our farmers. Whether you're a generous sponsor, a guest, a bidder at the auction, or a raffle ticket buyer, your support is truly valued. The event's success highlighted robust industry partnerships and effective leadership. Guests enjoyed mingling at their tables, the bar, and the dessert station and danced to the tunes of Layne Allen Music. While the auction items were distinctive and the music was lively, Texas Rice Roundup served a significant purpose. The core of this event was to raise funds in support of our U.S. rice farmers. Despite facing numerous challenges, the industry has remained resilient and stronger than ever. The unwavering dedication and hard work of our farmers continue to drive us toward success.

We continue to receive messages of condolence over the passing of Robert “Bob” Papanos. Bob, survived by his children Ann Gallo and Andrew Papanos, their spouses, and four grandchildren, was preceded in death by his wife Victoria Laing Papanos of 43 years. A memorial service for Bob is scheduled for Saturday, March 2, 2024, from 10:00 am to 11:00 am at Forest Park The Woodlands Funeral Home & Cemetery, 18000 Interstate 45 S, The Woodlands, TX 77384. This will be followed by a committal service from 11:00 am to 11:30 am.

Agriculture Secretary Testifies Before House Agriculture Committee

On Wednesday, Secretary of Agriculture Tom Vilsack testified before the House Agriculture Committee. Republicans and Democrats agreed on the importance of a passing bipartisan farm bill. Republicans focused on the struggles faced by farmers due to fractured supply chains, high input costs, inflation, natural disasters, volatile markets, and labor shortages. They also discussed the ramifications of California’s Proposition 12, the rollout of the Emergency Relief Program for 2022, and funding for the Supplemental Nutritional Assistance Program and other nutrition assistance programs. Democrats focused on continuing support for nutrition programs and preserving investments in conservation programs through the Inflation Reduction Act. Secretary Vilsack advocated for preserving the flexibility of the Secretary of Agriculture to use the Commodity Credit Corporation.

Other topics discussed include labor challenges, wildfire and forest management, direct and guaranteed loan programs, foreign farmland purchases, and the impacts of tariffs on agricultural products. Secretary Vilsack is scheduled to testify in front of the Senate Agriculture Committee on February 28.

A summary of the hearing can be found here and a recording of the hearing can be found here.

Following the vein from last week where we discussed the increasing pace of exports of US long grain rice, the USDA Economic Research Service Rice Outlook report just released this week is headlined “U.S. 2023/24 Export Forecast Raised 2.0 million cwt to 87 million.” Top-line news like this is especially positive when it trickles down to on-farm pricing, which has been the case thus far into the year. With futures prices pushing new highs, the market is also testing the topside tolerance of domestic buyers. What we are finding is that prices aren’t likely to go up forever, but sustained firm pricing is not only possible but probable.    Right now on the ground, we are seeing prices in Texas firm at $19.00/cwt, Louisiana $18.40/cwt, and Arkansas, Mississippi, and Missouri all strong at $18.50/cwt. If we look at prices from last September/October, we see an increase of 17% in the last four months. This increase typifies the reality that the United States has been the only reliable supplier of long grain for months.   In Asia, it has been a long-held expectation that prices would remain over $600 pmt on account of the Indian export ban. Prices skyrocketed to over $625 pmt, then $650 pmt, then even above $660 pmt. Thailand and Vietnam have been neck-and-neck vying for exports with strong demand, but the recent and very sizable procurement from Indonesia that didn’t include any Thai rice has poked a hole in the upward narrative. Prices for Thai rice have now dropped down to $625 pmt, and Viet prices at $645 pmt, down significantly from recent weeks. The expectation is that India will lift their ban sometime between April and June of this year.   Further investigation into the February ERS Rice Outlook reveals that the rice import forecast was raised by 1 million cwt, to a record 43 million cwt. This 8% increase from last year comes all in the long grain category. More specifically, the lion’s share is Thai jasmine or aromatic varieties. Also increased, as mentioned above, was the export forecast, by 2 million cwt, all of which is not only long grain rice but long grain rough rice. This is 35% above last year and the highest since 2020/21. This fact alone speaks to the value of our partners in Central and South America and the strategic partnerships and relationships that USRPA fostered over the years.   The weekly USDA Export Sales report shows net sales of 154,900 MT this week, up 40% from the previous week and up noticeably from the prior 4-week average. Increases primarily for Colombia (88,000 MT), Mexico (22,300 MT), Haiti (22,200 MT), Japan (14,000 MT), and El Salvador (6,000 MT). Exports of 95,600 MT were up 23% from the previous week and 27% from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily Senegal (34,600 MT), Venezuela (27,700 MT), Haiti (22,200 MT), Mexico (4,100 MT), and Canada (2,400 MT).

Congressman Jason Smith calls for investigation into competition in the global rice market

On Monday, Chairman of the House Ways and Means Committee Jason Smith (R-MO) sent a letter to the U.S. International Trade Commission (USITC) Chairman David Johanson calling for an investigation into the competitiveness of global rice markets.

The USITC analyzed the market and produced a report in 2015, but Congressman Smith requested the Commission update this report to include information from 2018-2023. This includes information on developments in the rice industry in the U.S. as well as in major export markets, policy changes in the U.S. and other rice-producing countries, and relative strengths and weaknesses of U.S. rice production and exports compared to other rice-producing countries.

A copy of the letter can be found here.

House Ways and Means Committee holds a hearing on trade issues

On Wednesday, the House Ways and Means Committee Trade Subcommittee held a hearing on American trade interests ahead of the World Trade Organization’s Ministerial Conference later this month. During the hearing, a rice miller testified on how policies in other countries like India are impacting the domestic rice industry. He called for strengthening enforcement mechanisms to better protect rice farmers and other agricultural producers. A recording of the hearing can be found here.

USDA releases 2024 farm income forecast

On Wednesday, USDA released its projections for farm income for 2024. Overall, USDA is forecasting that income will continue to decrease in 2024; however, cash receipts for rice are expected to increase by $400 million, or 13.1%. In addition, USDA expects that direct payments to producers through ARC and PLC will decrease while the cost of production—including labor and fertilizer—will increase. More information on the farm income forecast can be found here.