Get your life preserver. Former USRPA CEO Dwight Roberts has said this market “isn’t just a perfect storm, it’s a tsunami.” He said this even before Trump’s Liberation Day, where tariffs will now dictate market flows, so we will focus on the rice market pre-tariff in what we know and why this is appearing more like a tsunami.  This all started when India released their export ban. Since then, prices in the Far East and Middle East have dropped well over 30%, now trading in the sub-$ $400 pmt range for milled rice. There was some strong resistance in the Western Hemisphere, where U.S. long grain prices held around $800 pmt for most of last year. But with the poor milling quality, that began to weaken. Now add what is shaping up to be a very strong harvest in South America (Mercosur specifically) to a projected sizable crop and large carryover stocks (according to the USDA) in the United States. Next week’s (April 10) USDA-WASDE report should get us some insight as the March report raised carryover by 1 million cwts, putting stocks higher than the previous year. Rice farmers will likely be underwater (to keep with the tsunami theme) for another year. This week’s heavy flooding and tornadoes during planting season in northeast Arkansas and southeast Missouri, the largest long grain producing area, further complicates the situation.  Might the tariffs help the U.S. farmer, though? There is a scenario in which this could be a resounding yes! In round numbers, nearly one-third of U.S. rice consumption is imported rice, led by Thai Jasmine and then Basmati. Tariffs on Thailand are 36%, and on India 26%. That could add anywhere from $200-$300 pmt in cost, making domestic U.S. products more competitive, ideally driving up domestic demand and reducing our reliance on imports. The news is doing a fine job of explaining everything that could go wrong, so we felt it prudent to inject some “hope” into what otherwise feels like a wildly chaotic situation. In the end, consumers will decide.  In Asia, the low rice prices have Thai farmers in protest and Vietnamese farmers looking for relief through some sort of government or private market valve. As aforementioned, Thai prices have dipped below $400 pmt to $395 pmt, and Viet prices are just hanging on at $400 pmt. India is again the low price leader, down to $385 pmt. While this is “excellent” news for countries desperate for cheap rice in West African regions, it is wreaking havoc on rice producers at large, an unfortunate circumstance when the USTR is trying to minimize unfair subsidies in the rice market.  In that vein, just this week, USTR dropped its nearly 400-page report on U.S. foreign trade barriers. This report is an annual directive and carries special prominence this year to an administration that is extremely focused on trade. USRPA has repeatedly assisted in outlining trade barriers and expressed frustration in the previous administration's lack of action. We can’t complain about any “lack of action” for this administration — especially since rice has been highlighted both by the President and his Press Secretary as an example of unfair trade tariffs that the U.S. has endured. Still, much is to be uncovered as these policies play out before all of our eyes. On the ground, paddy prices haven't changed, which in this market can be taken as a sign of softening. We look forward to next week when we have the first published Crop Progress report of the year.  The weekly USDA Export Sales report shows net sales of 33,300 MT this week, down 67% from the previous week and 37% from the prior 4-week average. Exports of 87,600 MT were up 10% from the previous week and 65% from the prior 4-week average.

Our prayers are with the people of Lake City, AR, where an EF-3 tornado ripped through the community on Wednesday. Lake City is approximately 20 miles east of Jonesboro. Photo Source: KATV

As part of an ongoing effort to promote healthy and delicious meals, we visited the Centro de formación estudiantil Emanuel col. 4 de Febrero, where students had the opportunity to learn how to prepare a flavorful and nutritious dish—Rice with Ranch-Style Beans. Under the motto "Con Arroz la vida es mas sabrosa" (With Rice, Life is More Flavorful), the event aimed to highlight the benefits of incorporating rice into everyday meals, emphasizing its nutritional value and versatility in cooking. This initiative was made possible thanks to the support of the US Rice Producers Association, which continues to encourage the consumption of rice as a staple ingredient in balanced diets. We extend our gratitude to all participants, supporters, and followers who contribute to making these educational experiences meaningful. Let’s keep working together to "Pon Tu Granito de ARROZ" in fostering a healthier future! Follow USA ARROZ Facebook page for more news.

From the USDA website: USDA’s Farm Service Agency is issuing up to $10 billion in direct payments to eligible agricultural producers of eligible commodities for the 2024 crop year through the Emergency Commodity Assistance Program (ECAP). These one-time economic assistance payments will help commodity producers mitigate the impacts of increased input costs and falling commodity prices. 

Who Is Eligible:

To be eligible, producers must meet the following requirements: 

• Be actively engaged in farming.
• Have an interest in input expenses for a covered commodity.
• Have reported acreage of eligible commodities to FSA for the 2024 crop year planted and prevent plant acres to FSA on an FSA-578, Report of Acreage form.
• Have reported acres that were prevented from being planted to FSA for the 2024 crop year on a CCC-576 Notice of Loss form (if applicable). 

Note: Producers who have not previously reported 2024 crop year acreage or filed a notice of loss for prevent plant crops must submit an acreage report by the August 15, 2025, deadline.  

Click here to learn more and to apply.

USDA Announces FPAC Presidential Appointments: The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) recently announced several new President Trump’s appointments for key roles within the Farm Production and Conservation (FPAC) mission area. Agencies housed under FPAC include the Farm Service Agency (FSA), the Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS), and the Risk Management Agency (RMA). Brooke Appleton was appointed to serve as Deputy Under Secretary for FPAC. Before this role, she served as the Vice President of Public Policy at the National Corn Growers Association and worked at USDA under the first Trump Administration as Chief of Staff to the Deputy Secretary. Andrew Fisher will serve as Chief of Staff for FPAC. Most recently, he worked on the Hill for Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-KY) as a Legislative Assistant covering the agriculture portfolio. Aubrey Bettencourt was appointed as NRCS Chief. Before this role, she served as the Global Director of Government Affairs and External Affairs for Netafim and previously held the role of Deputy Assistant Secretary for the U.S. Department of the Interior under the first Trump Administration. Bill Beam was tapped to be the next FSA Administrator. Bill owns and operates Beam Farms Inc., where he farms corn, soybean, wheat, and previously served in the first Trump Administration as Deputy Administrator of Farm Programs for FSA. Pat Swanson will serve as the next RMA Administrator. Most recently, she was a Director for the American Soybean Association (ASA) and completed her term on the Federal Crop Insurance Corporation Board. Lastly, Colton Buckley was appointed Chief of Staff for NRCS. Before this role, he served as the Chief Executive Officer of the National Association of Resource Conservation and Development Councils. USRPA Signs onto Coalition Letter addressed to USTR on Chinese Shipbuilding Section 301 Remedies: This week, the US Rice Producers Association (USRPA) signed onto a coalition letter led by the Ag CEO Council regarding the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) proposed actions associated with the Section 301 investigation of China’s targeting the maritime, logistics, and shipbuilding sectors for dominance. Other signatories of the letter included a wide breadth of the nation’s economy, including importers, exporters, farmers and agribusinesses, retailers, manufacturers, energy providers, wholesalers, and transportation and logistics providers. You can find a copy of the coalition letter here.

Planting is underway in the U.S., where the expectation for planted acres is a contested issue on account of seed availability, financing, and the poor overall condition of the farm economy. While U.S. rice producers are sorting through these difficult issues, harvest is entirely underway in South America, where it is a few weeks behind schedule in Brazil and Uruguay and slightly ahead of schedule in Argentina and Paraguay. Prices in South America have been dropping like in North America, but not as severely as in Asia and India.Milled product from the U.S. is now quoted at $ 680 pmt, where Brazil is $ 630 pmt, Uruguay at $ 615 pmt, and Argentina at $ 580 pmt. Recall that the U.S. product was $800 pmt for much of last year, resulting in a 15% drop. Asian prices have seen much closer to a 30% drop over the past year on account of India’s stock release. Thailand, Vietnam, and India show prices of $405 pmt, $412 pmt, and $395 pmt, respectively, this week. Prices on the ground here in the U.S. have been flat from last week to this week. There has been so much focus on our internal politics as of late, it is refreshing to turn to Haiti to look at their next step in what we hope is the right direction. Haiti, the largest milled rice customer for the U.S., hasn’t held an election since July 2021, when President Jovenel Moise was assassinated. Earlier this month, Fritz Alphonse Jean was installed as the head of Haiti’s Transitional Presidential Council, with the express mission to ensure safe and fair elections by February 2026. This is all to say that restoring safety and stability to our largest market is key in the coming year, as Haiti imported 355,000 metric tons from the US in 2024. A recent GAIN report for Mexico, our largest paddy customer, expects rice production and consumption to increase in the coming year. Often, a government’s focus on increasing rice production can negatively impact our exports into that market, but the strong growth of the Mexican population and the acceptance of our rice into the market spells an expected increase of 2% for the coming year (assuming tariffs don’t get in the way). Over the last five years, paddy rice accounted for 85% of Mexico’s total rice imports, where the U.S. held 76% of the market share. Brazil followed with 21%, where Paraguay and Uruguay carried the balance. As for the 15% of milled rice imports, most came from Thai long grain, but that could change as there is now a 20% duty on Thai rice per the Mexican government’s anti-inflationary policy. The weekly USDA Export Sales report shows net sales of 101,700 MT this week, up noticeably from the previous week and up 39% from the prior 4-week average. Exports of 79,900 MT were up 14% from the previous week and 48% from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily Nicaragua (18,000 MT), Haiti (15,300 MT), Mexico (12,900 MT), Guatemala (11,000 MT), and Honduras (10,300 MT).

The enduring partnership between the US Rice Producers Association (USRPA) and the Central American Rice Federation (FECARROZ) has thrived for over two decades, underscoring a shared commitment to strengthening the region’s rice industry. At a recent meeting, USRPA Western Hemisphere Marketing Manager Iris Figueroa joined key representatives from the Central American rice sector, including leaders from El Salvador, Guatemala, Nicaragua, Honduras, and Costa Rica, to discuss critical issues affecting the current rice market. “It is essential for us to be present at these meetings—not only to demonstrate our support but also to engage in meaningful, one-on-one conversations to address any questions,” said Figueroa. Participating virtually, USRPA President and CEO Marcela Garcia reaffirmed the association’s dedication to working closely with FECARROZ. Also joining remotely was Alice Gomez, Principal Advisor at Cornerstone, who provided an update on the latest trade developments. USRPA actively runs promotional programs in Guatemala, Honduras, and El Salvador while also collaborating closely with other regions to expand its outreach and impact.

House and Senate budget resolutions top of mind, directing topline cuts to the Agriculture Committees:

Last week, the Senate Committee on the Budget easily pushed their budget resolution out of committee along a party-line vote of 11-10. The Committee approved resolution would direct the Senate Committee on Agriculture, Nutrition, and Forestry to cut no less than $1 billion in mandatory spending over the next ten fiscal years (FY 2026 through FY 2035). Following the Senate, the House Budget Committee passed their budget resolution along a party-line vote of 21-16. Compared to the Senate, the House version of the resolution would direct the House Agriculture Committee to cut $230 billion within the Committee’s jurisdiction over the same ten fiscal year period. The budget resolution cannot and does not specify where each Committee of Congress may find changes in the budget to meet the budget resolution’s requirements. In the Ag Committee’s jurisdiction, the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) makes up more than 79 percent of the farm bill spending baseline over the next 10 years. Any major spending reductions required of the Agriculture Committees will drive the Committees to look to SNAP for much of the savings. Budget cuts of the magnitude of the House Resolution’s $230 billion to the Agriculture Committees could complicate the ability of the Committees and the Congress to pass a farm bill later this year. 

On Thursday evening, the Senate initiated “Vote-A-Rama” and brought their Fiscal Year 2025 Senate budget resolution (S.Con.Res.7) to the floor for debate. Lasting late into the night and early this morning, the Senate eventually passed their budget resolution by a vote of 52-48. Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY) was notably the only Republican to vote against the budget resolution, along with the Democrats. With the House being out of session this week, they will evaluate their options and potentially attempt to pass their resolution on the floor when they return next week. While the House (-$230 billion) and Senate (-$1 billion) are far apart concerning the reductions in agriculture committee spending in their current budget resolutions, a single target must be agreed upon in conference between the two chambers before Congress can move forward with a budget reconciliation bill to enact the actual spending changes required by a single budget resolution agreed to by both the House and the Senate. Additionally, President Trump endorsed the House Republicans’ proposal earlier this week promoting one larger bill versus the Senate’s approach of wanting two separate bills, further complicating the Senate and House Republican positions on reconciliation.

Layoffs Hit Thousands of USDA Employees Across the Country

Recently, it was reported that the Trump Administration had fired thousands of U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) employees across the country as part of the Administration’s efforts to reduce the federal workforce. Layoffs have been spread across multiple agencies, including but not limited to the U.S. Forest Service, the Agriculture Research Service, the Foreign Agriculture Service, etc., and mostly were targeted toward new hires. Additionally, some senior executive staff across USDA were also given notice that they would be demoted or put on administrative leave. In times when the agriculture industry at large is facing economic headwinds and uncertainty, recent firings have resulted in the loss of highly technical experts in animal health, conservation and other essential aspects of the Department.  

The market has been cruising along without significant change; with so much happening on a geopolitical front, this is no surprise. As a result, we will focus on planting intentions for the coming year and a GAIN update on what the Dominican Republic is doing to protect its rice industry from U.S. competition under CAFTA-DR. To begin, planting intentions for the 2025 crop are very much in line with expectations from 2023 and 2024 (with 1%), but up over 20% from the 2022 crop. All in numbers at this stage of the game for both medium and long grain plantings rest at 2.888 million acres. With the reality of seed availability plaguing some long grain plantings, and a precarious water situation on the West Coast, it is believed that the odds are better for acres to decrease rather than increase by the time it’s all said and done. Several key market analysts are predicting a reduction in long-grain acres as high as 300,000 acres. Next week the USDA’s 101st Agricultural Outlook Forum (usda.gov) is expected to shed light on the situation and the overall market conditions for farmers. To break it down a bit further, of the 2.888 million acres, 2.202 million acres are projected for long grain and 686 thousand acres for medium grain.

Looking down the barrel at a crop of similar size, we can only hope to see favorable growing conditions that result in a higher quality crop than this year. This is increasingly important with cheaper options from the eastern hemisphere, as well as the DR moving to protect its rice industry from U.S. competition under CAFTA-DR. The Gain Report shows that on December 17, 2024, the DR issued a decree to limit its rice imports into the country. The Decree establishes a quote of 23,300 metric tons for U.S. rice subject to a 0% ad valorem tariff. Then, the next 17,810 MT of U.S. rice is subject to a 20% ad valorem tariff. Any U.S. rice over these two quotas will face a 99% tariff. This obviously will harm our ability to supply this market, but to quantify the impact, we see that the DR’s annual rice consumption is appx 650,000 MT. In 2024, 113,596 MT was imported. Of these imports, 46% (52,414 MT) was of U.S. origin, 34% (38,561 MT) from Brazil, and 12% (13,805 MT) from Uruguay. This means that if 2025 is a repeat of 2024, the first 23,300 MT at 0% is fine, the next 17,810 MT is questionable, and the remaining 11,304 MT is certainly lost. The economics of rice farming are becoming increasingly difficult, and that is ever-present on the minds of farmers who can entertain a crop rotation or alternate crops. There is continued reliance on an updated farm bill, but that can’t quell the need for a long-term solution to the quality problem that has been plaguing U.S. rice. We look forward to future reports that can hone in on actual planting data to help clarify the expectations for the coming marketing cycle. Today’s USDA export sales report will be closely observed for any indication of demand.