Geopolitics crowd the headlines, and rice is now caught in the crossfire. Not only have there been reports of both container and bulk vessels loaded with rice being held up, but the fear of the unknown is also sending shockwaves through the demand complex. We will touch later on the fact that global rice stocks continue to bulge according to the most recent WASDE, so any additional tightening on the demand side is borderline catastrophic to the already strained supply side of the equation.

The FAO Rice Price Index was right in line with last month at 103.2 points, yet still down 2.5% from the same time last year. We have been saying for some time now that we are bouncing along the bottom, and this global price index would validate the statement. However, the FARPI is a trailing indicator and has not taken into account the halting shipments in the Persian Gulf because of the war in Iran. We expect to see further losses in the next report as a result. The index, which takes into account short, medium, and long grain varieties, was mixed this month, with medium grain seeing slight increases and long grain seeing slight decreases, averaging out to a net zero change month over month.

The most recent Grains Report offers an overview of the 2025/26 global rice production. Like the FAO Rice Index, it is virtually unchanged since last month, with increases to Cuba and Kazakhstan offsetting a smaller crop in Honduras. Global trade is down with decreases to Thailand, Cambodia, and the United States. Global consumption is down, led by reductions in Cameroon and Guinea. Global stocks are forecast to rise due to India, Bangladesh, and Thailand

Further reading into the WASDE this month, since last month, global export quotes decreased for all major exporters aside from Uruguay. U.S. quotes dropped $16 to $534/ton on continued weak sales to traditional markets. Uruguayan quotes jumped to $459/ton on tight supplies ahead of the harvest of its new crop. Indian quotes decreased to $346/ton on weaker demand from Sub-Saharan Africa. Vietnamese quotes decreased to $352/ton, reflecting the start of the spring harvest, offsetting improved demand from the Philippines. Thai quotes dropped $17 to $383/ton on currency depreciation and reduced demand

The weekly USDA Export Sales report shows net sales of 32,600 MT this week, up 68% from the previous week, but down 58% from the prior 4-week average. Exports of 40,900 MT were up 40% from the previous week and 2% from the prior 4-week average.