| The market has been sleeping off its Thanksgiving turkey hangover, with a consistent market since our last report. There is a bright spot of special note as this week's Export Sales report logged a marketing year high for exports of 99,700 MT, with Nicaragua, Honduras, and Venezuela receiving the lion’s share of the business. We’ve known the business is out there, but seeing it materialize has proven difficult. It’s also worth mentioning that we may see an increase in activity and reports of the ability to ship parboiled into the West African market. This may sound like a long shot given the Indian and Pakistani prices, but there was a time when it was normal for a significant amount of U.S.-parboiled rice to find its home in West Africa. Any form of disappearance is welcomed in the global supply glut, and parboiled rice may be a good outlet given the quality constraints. On the ground, prices in Missouri, Arkansas, and Mississippi are still resting at $15.25/cwt. Louisiana is looking at $15.50/cwt, and Texas is $15.50-$16.10/cwt. The world market price for Long Grain per the USDA this week sits at $12.75/cwt. Long grain milled prices are beginning to soften after holding steady at $800pmt for months, with most recent reports being closer to $790pmt. An interesting fact to point out is that in the calendar year, the U.S. has officially exported more rice in the first nine months of the year than the whole of 2023. In the Eastern Hemisphere, India, Thailand, Vietnam, and Pakistan didn’t take a Thanksgiving holiday. Instead, they continued to duke it out over significant buyers like Indonesia, the Philippines, West Africa, and Iraq (yes, Iraq, whom we hope will book more tenders for U.S. long grain in the coming months, albeit at higher prices). India and Pakistan prices are at least consistent on the bottom over the last two weeks around $450-$460pmt, while Viet is just over $520pmt, and Viet is closer to $525pmt. Even in the face of India’s huge supplies, demand has remained strong, which has helped prevent catastrophe in overall rice prices. The weekly USDA Export Sales report shows net sales of 83,300 MT this week, up noticeably from the previous week and up 15% from the prior 4-week average. Increases primarily for South Korea (30,100 MT), Nicaragua (27,500 MT), Mexico (13,100 MT), Saudi Arabia (8,700 MT), and Japan (4,600 MT), were offset by reductions for Honduras (1,600 MT). Exports of 99,700 MT - a marketing-year high - were up 21% from the previous week and 70% from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to Nicaragua (27,500 MT), Honduras (24,200 MT), Venezuela (22,100 MT), Saudi Arabia (8,800 MT), and the United Kingdom (8,000 MT). |
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