| he WASDE report that was published this week didn’t have a significant impact on the market, but there are a few key highlights to point out. First, the USDA raised the 2024/25 carryover by 4 million cwt, up to 34.3 million cwt. Second, exports were lowered by 4 million cwt down to 68 million, or a 5.5% decrease. World stocks are relatively unchanged, and it’s anyone’s guess what is actually happening with China’s stocks. But we do know, and will explain below, that India being back in the market should increase China’s procurements in the coming months and through the balance of the year. The recent Grains: World Markets and Trade report shows that global rice production remains at record highs, and that’s being reflected in the price It is expected that China will begin importing more as India continues to push supplies (and possibly brokens) into the market. Since the last WASDE report in January, export prices have sharply declined. We have been chronicling this decline, and at the current moment, it isn't easy to foresee any rebound in the near or even medium term. These low prices are expected to lure China back into the market though, with imports expected to increase back to 2022 levels—or pre-Indian export ban. We shall see, but ultimately China’s demand could bring balance back to prices in the Eastern Hemisphere. In the Western Hemisphere, the chart below (from FAS and GATS data) shows U.S. Rice exports by dollar value from 2015 to 2024. The total export value in 2024 was $2.42 billion, while the 3-year average was $2.05 billion. The total volume in 2024 was 3.82 MMT, while the compound average growth in exports by value from 2015-2024 was only 2%. The top three long grain markets by value are Mexico ($443 million), Haiti ($268 million) and Canada ($175 million). The top medium grain markets are Japan at $296 million, and South Korea at $199 million. While this chart does look like “growth” for US rice exports on a dollar volume level, it does not accurately reflect the farm gate pricing or the amount of money that it costs to raise a rice crop; ie: the costs to produce a crop have significantly outpaced the 2% increase since 2015.  The weekly USDA Export Sales report shows net sales of 44,900 MT this week, up significantly from last week, but down 6% from the prior 4-week average. Exports o 127,500 MT—a marketing-year high—were up 96%from the previous week and up noticeably from the prior 4-week average. |
 |
25722 Kingsland Blvd., Ste. 203, Katy, Texas 77494
Phone: 713-974-7423
USRPA does not discriminate in its programs on the basis of race, color, national origin, gender identity, sexual orientation, religion, age, disability, political beliefs, or marital/family status. Persons with disabilities who require alternative means for communication of information (such as Braille, large print, American sign language, language translation, etc.) should contact USRPA at 713-974-7423. EEO.
