Harvest marches forward with both Louisiana and Texas approaching 90% complete. Both states have seen strong progress as they are nearly 10% faster than last year. Arkansas is now at 40% complete, which is a whopping 30% faster than last year. This is where the news will be, with many producers stating they are seeing some excellent yields coming out of the fields. We can’t confirm how widespread this is, nor can we make firm statements on milling yields yet. Initial reports seem to be average, but much too soon to tell. Missouri and Mississippi are moving steadily forward, and medium grain on the west coast will begin first part of next week on the early rice. Crop condition is still fantastic compared to last year, with 79% being Good/Excellent this year, compared to only 70% last year.

The Calrose market has been a volatile one in the last 12 months, where cash prices have bottomed out at below $8/cwt over loan (appx $15/cwt all in), resulting in severe losses for cash sellers who have been holding their rice hoping for higher prices. A confluence of inaccessible demand in the Middle East, a large crop, and global competitors that got a foothold during the drought has made for a rough marketing season. Strong Japanese SBS business in the coming weeks, along with typical exports and a returning MENA region appear to be shifting the tide though, as we expect prices to turn northward and bump above $9/cwt for old crop rice. There has been little to no price discovery on new crop, as record stocks have precluded new crop sales.

Looking at our total exports through June, it is great news when comparing them to last year. Our top three markets this year are Mexico, Haiti, and Japan, where last year they were Mexico, Haiti, Iraq. We expect Iraq to bump up again now that their banking issues seem to be resolved, and they can fulfill their MOU for U.S. rice. Of the top ten export destinations, the first 6-months of the 2023 calendar year resulted in 1.328 MMT of exports. This year, the same period has resulted in 2.124 MMT of exports, a whopping 60% increase! With a crop expected to exceed 2.8 million acres, exports are likely to increase further, though price direction is still uncertain.

We are thankful now for good weather, a strong looking crop, and what looks like steady demand moving into the fourth quarter of 2024.