Rice markets are increasingly competitive globally, from the Americas to the Near and Far East. All origins are aggressively fighting for export share. U.S. milled white rice remains the most expensive globally at $670/MT, yet this is still 16% below last year’s price. Many Asian origins have seen price drops of over 30%. Newly announced U.S. tariffs on Thai rice are raising concern in Bangkok. At the same time, U.S. producers and marketers see a rare opportunity to grow domestic market share and possibly regain ground long term.

Domestically, a large crop is going into the ground, putting downward pressure on new crop price expectations. Yet the full impact of weather-related acreage losses and weak grower economics is still unfolding. As of May 4, the Crop Progress Report shows rice planting across the six major states is 73% complete, ahead of both last week (64%) and the five-year average (64%). Arkansas (77%) and Mississippi (74%) are ahead of average, while California trails at 35%. Emergence is also ahead of schedule nationally at 54%, compared to the 42% five-year average, with Louisiana (90%) and Texas (85%) leading. California has not yet reported emergence, consistent with its later planting window.

On-the-ground prices remain unchanged. Texas is holding at $12.50–$13/cwt, Louisiana at $13, and Mississippi, Arkansas, and Missouri between $11.75–$12/cwt.

Globally, the April FAO All Rice Price Index edged up 0.8% from March to 104.9, though it remains 22.6% below year-ago levels. The increase was driven solely by modest firming in historically weak Japonica and Fragrant rice markets. Indica prices were mostly flat, while glutinous rice slipped 4.1%.

U.S. weekly Export Sales reached 58,200 MT, up sharply from both the previous week and the 4-week average. Exports totaled 43,100 MT, up week-on-week but 15% below the prior 4-week average.