A person would be hard pressed to drive through Louisiana rice country and not see at least some rice beginning to head out, as 27% is reported headed this week per the USDA Crop Progress Report. Texas is reported at 18%, with both states being ahead of the 5-year average. The rice condition is on par with last year, which offered 83% in the good/excellent categories. Last week, it was 77%, and this week it is 74%. While the trend isn’t ideal, the rice isn’t rated as poor or very poor, but fair.

Actual planted long grain acreage continues to be debated as wet conditions in NE Arkansas and SE Missouri, and seed availability, contributed to lower than expected plantings. Prices haven’t changed—for paddy or milled—significantly in the last week. Iraq business remains the key driver for milled business right now, and the saving grace at that. With South America coming on strong with a large crop, stable quality, and lower prices, the United States is hard pressed to find new business at the moment. And with India gobbling up the cheaper markets around the globe with its unfairly subsidized rice, competition will be fierce for the coming crop.

A recent GAIN report on India highlights the dire situation they are putting the global rice trade in. Multiple concurrent record crops are depressing prices, even while Indian rice producers get unfairly subsidized to flood the export market and balloon domestic stocks. India’s rice production forecast for MY 2025/2026 has been raised to 150 million metric tons due to an increase in area harvested, now projected at 126 million acres. This growth is driven by an early and well-distributed 2025 monsoon, which is expected to boost both planting and yields. Farmers are likely to choose rice over other crops due to its resilience and government subsidies. For MY 2024/2025, production is also revised upward to a record 149 MMT from 127 million acres, based on higher-than-expected yields for kharif rice and expanded rabi/summer planting. These projections have increased despite weak market prices, spelling more pain for Vietnam, Thailand, and other rice exporters.

India’s rice exports for MY 2024/2025 are projected to reach a record 24.5 million metric tons, driven by strong export momentum through March 2025, with 12.7 MMT already shipped compared to 7.1 MMT during the same period last year. With monthly exports averaging around 2 MMT, this pace is expected to continue. Looking ahead, MY 2025/2026 exports are forecast higher at 25 MMT, assuming stable export policies and favorable price parity, supported by abundant domestic supplies and weak domestic prices that may prompt the government to release additional stocks into the market.

We will report on bright spots as they become available, but until there is an updated farm bill that addresses the price distortions and input costs that rice producers are suffering through, it will continue to be a financially tight season