| The WASDE report was released on August 12th. The outlook for U.S. rice this month calls for reduced supplies, steady domestic use, steady exports, and lower ending stocks. The supply decrease is based on lower production and reduced beginning stocks. The new average all-rice yield is forecast at 7,623 lbs/acre, down 22 lbs from last month. The projected 2024/25 all rice ending stocks are lowered by 2.4 million cwt to 43.6 million cwt. Despite this drop, we are still up 14% compared to last year, which has been the plan because of the increased crop size. The Global Outlook calls for decreases across the board in supplies, consumption, trade, and ending stocks. The lower supplies are on account of decreased stocks out of Vietnam and the Philippines. World Consumption dropped slightly based on figures coming out of Vietnam, the Philippines, and Kenya. The global trade drop is because of Brazil not having any rice, Vietnam slowing some, and of course, India. The International Grains Council also released a report this week, citing a few key points in the Western Hemisphere. Over the past month, U.S. prices have dropped from the $790 pmt range it has been sitting at since March, down to $770 pmt. This is despite demand from Latin America, but overweighted by the expectations of the larger crop. Per the report, Uruguay quotes dropped to $803/ton as purchases by Brazil and the EU declined. In Asia, Thai is now quoted at $565 pmt and Viet took a big jump to $595, up from only $570 pmt last week because of a large purchase from BULOG out of Indonesia. Philippine business is steady, as is demand from other Asian countries. On the ground, the crop continues to look great, with a full 80% being reported in Good to Excellent condition! Last year it was only 66% at this time, and also 27% as Fair. This year, only 17% is reported as Fair because it has bumped into the Good condition. In regards to harvest, Louisiana is now more than halfway through, with Texas catching up now over 40%. Arkansas has barely started, and all other states are patiently waiting for rice to mature. Some boards are being pulled in California, as harvest is expected to begin in approximately 30 days. There is concern about yields on the West Coast because of the excessive heat this summer, but we are not making any calls yet. The weekly USDA Export Sales report shows net sales of 68,000 MT this week, primarily for Iraq (40,000 MT) and El Salvador (12,500 MT). Exports of 71,500 MT were primarily to Turkey (28,000 MT), Japan (15,700 MT), Saudi Arabia (9.200 MT), Honduras (6,600 MT), and Jordan (2,700 MT). |
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