| The rice market continues to be overshadowed by happenings in Washington, as does most of the news around the world. Trump’s policies and executive orders are reshaping the way the United States has governed, tying immigration policies to economic sanctions. Colombia was front and center of this battle, which is a country near and dear to the U.S. rice industry, as it is a key export partner for long grain rice. In 2023, Colombia was the seventh largest export market for U.S. rice with 154 TMT, and through October 2024, it is the sixth largest market with 165 TMT. Regardless if one agrees or disagrees with the new policies, what is becoming abundantly clear is that the shockwaves will be felt in all strata of government and private industry. Paddy exports and a strong domestic market seem to be the key drivers that are staving off any steep price declines for U.S. prices at the moment. While the mills aren’t thrilled with the strength of paddy exports, diminishing our supply is certainly welcome as new crop-planting intentions are beginning to emerge. While prices for U.S. long grain had held steady at $800 pmt for the better part of last year, prices are now inching downwards, now closer to $740 pmt. Paddy prices are reported anywhere between $350-$360 pmt FOB NOLA. On the ground, pricing is a bit soft, reflecting what we’re seeing in the global markets. In Texas, the price is $14.70, while in Louisiana prices are reported $14.50-$14.80/cwt. In Mississippi, Arkansas, and Missouri, we are seeing prices from $13.75-$14.00/cwt. These prices are certainly lower than producers want, and it will be interesting to see how planting intentions emerge in the coming month. With medium grain prices where they are, we don’t expect to see any plantings outside of what’s contracted in that market. That could result in a larger acreage of long grain rice, but that’s all dependent on the bean price. We understand a seed shortage is going to have an impact on long grain acres, lower yields, etc. Some predict long grain acres will be lowered by over 200,000 acres from last year. The Mercosur harvest has yet to enter full swing with most of the cutting so far in Paraguay and northern Argentina. The overall crop is reported to be in good shape in the four countries. A recent sale of Argentine paddy at $325 pmt FOB Las Palmas, Argentina reportedly sold to Venezuela has sent a few shock waves into the market. In Asia, competition remains fierce from the primary export origins. It is a strong supply continuing to pour out of India, which is resulting in tense pricing wars among Thailand, Vietnam, and India. For so long, the expectation was that India would continue to be the low-price leader, but about five weeks ago, Vietnam broke that norm and has consistently been offering rice below Indian offerings. Viet prices are currently at $415 pmt, while India is at $425 pmt, and Thailand is comfortably at $445 pmt. Some large buyers like Indonesia and the Philippines have been relatively quiet as of late, and their lack of activity certainly takes its toll on the pricing equation. The weekly USDA Export Sales report shows net sales of 104,400 MT last week, up 125% from the previous week and up from the prior 4-week average. Exports of 51,700 MT were up 24% from the previous week and 34% from the prior 4-week average. |
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