All is not quiet on the western front. Despite the U.S. rice industry clipping along to start off the new year, conflict abounds in the Western Hemisphere. But before we get to that, let’s cover the good things like adequate Mississippi River water levels, strong domestic bookings, and increasing exports. The cash market in all states but California has been relatively liquid with mills taking advantage of the U.S. being the only stable supply to Central and South America at the moment. Prices in Texas are trading at $18.15-$18.50/cwt, while Louisiana is reporting at $17.90/cwt. Prices in Mississippi, Arkansas, and Missouri are showing $17.25/cwt. We can’t say the spot market is going gang-busters, but there does seem to be liquidity now that the river has opened back up. In the meantime, farmers are assessing spring planting decisions.

Onto conflicts in the Western Hemisphere, where the newest country to join the fray of severe internal conflict is Ecuador. It was difficult to ignore the situation when armed and hooded men stormed a live television broadcast, thus throwing Ecuador’s President, Daniel Noboa, directly into the international spotlight. Internal conflict is not new to Ecuador, but a renewed effort is being placed on the government to combat drug cartels and other domestic criminal organizations who are being deemed as terrorists. Ecuador is a market for about 25,000 MT of milled rice per year for the U.S., and curfews and increased insecurity could make it more difficult to import rice into this country. We understand many rice businesses are forced to work from their home due to the situation. Last fall the USRPA hosted members of CORPCOM (Ecuador's milling association) and the Ministry of Agriculture’s AgroCalidad that resulted in the establishment of interim phytosanitary requirements leading to a pest risk assessment in coordination with the USDA-APHIS, “a trade win for both countries."

Other conflicts that are atop the news include Argentina’s new President, Javier Milei, and the wild currency and economic volatility in his attempt to “dollarize” Argentina. This week, Argentina officially became the new title-holder of the country with the highest inflation-now above 200%, passing up Venezuela. And speaking of Venezuela, they continue to claim Guyana’s territory as their own, but the conflict has faded from the news a bit.

The January FAO report shows that the All Rice Price Index averaged 141.1 points in December, up 1.6% from Nov '23, and up 18.6% from the same time last year. Long grain prices led the gain as Viet prices continued to firm and Thai prices followed. Overall, 2023 prices were 21.1% higher than 2022, all in thanks to India’s export ban for long grain, and the meteoric rise of Calrose due to the supply shortage in medium grain markets. All the while, demand has remained strong, and prices elevated. Most traders familiar with the situation expect prices to remain above $600 pmt for the foreseeable future in 2024.

In Asia, prices are still elevated, with Vietnam above $660 pmt, and Thailand at $650 pmt. Pakistan is now a part of the “over $600 pmt club," trading at $615 pmt. The spread between these Asian prices and the US is only $100 pmt, with US prices in the $770 pmt range. Uruguay is posting at nearly $800 pmt, but that will change when their supply becomes available in March. Argentina is showing $775 pmt, but their currency valuation and economic uncertainty make that a difficult market to call or count on.

The weekly USDA Export Sales report shows sales of 52,700 MT this week, up 69% from the previous week, but down 31% from the prior 4-week average. Increases primarily for Panama (33,000 MT), Venezuela (13,300 MT), Mexico (9,600 MT), Haiti (6,000 MT), and El Salvador (1,200 MT). Exports of 47,900 MT were down 10% from the previous week and 40% from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to Japan (13,600 MT), Venezuela (13,300 MT), Mexico (8,800 MT), Haiti (6,000 MT), and Canada (1,900 MT).