In surveying the market as it stands and looking into the months ahead, we are cautiously optimistic about how things are shaping up. Paddy is virtually gone from first hands in Arkansas, Mississippi, and Texas. Once planting has finished, farmers will clean out their bins, and selling final lots is expected. Where rice is available in Louisiana or Missouri, it's scarce. Months ago, the expectation was that the market would begin to soften as a result of the South American harvest and the new supplies that would bring. However, the prices to date have held and the harvest either isn’t coming in as strong as expected, or the anticipated supply increase is simply delayed from a pricing perspective. Sources in Mercosur use the word uncertainty when describing market conditions complicated by untimely weather during harvest. We have paddy vessels leading to Mexico, a strong milled market, and a full planting season that is significantly ahead of schedule to look forward to. We won’t want to jinx anything, but the market is almost downright cheerful at the moment.

A GAIN report on Morocco, a market that USRPA has been very active in developing as a conduit to access the Middle East and North Africa region, outlines that the weather has been hot and dry for the wheat and barley crops, thereby reducing local production. However, the small rice-producing region in the country is the only area with normal rainfall, therefore holding rice production steady. Post pegs domestic consumption at 125,000 MT, which is a 4% increase from the previous year, but still fairly low on a per-capita basis. Morocco has to import 80,000 MT of rice to meet its demand, the lion's share having come from India in the 2022/23 year. To date, US prices have remained too high to access the Moroccan market, but if things change, this is a potential outlet for U.S. markets.

In Asia, prices are reported steady from last week in the $595 pmt range for both Thailand and Vietnam. That may be pressed upward in the coming weeks, as Indonesia seemingly can’t get enough rice from these two countries. BULOG, Indonesia’s governmental rice purchasing arm, continues to procure rice at an outstanding pace, keeping pressure on origin markets in the absence of India.

The Crop Progress report shows solid gains on the week, with Arkansas 67% planted and 29% emerged. The 5-year average is only 28% and 9% respectively, so planting season is blazing forward in the largest ricer-producing state. CA is now showing 5% planted and zero emerged, Louisiana 87% planted and 77% emerged, Mississippi 27% and 13%, Missouri 56% and 14%, and Texas with 72% and 56%. On the whole, planting and emergence is significantly ahead of last year’s pace.

The weekly USDA Export Sales report showed net sales of 36,700 MT this week, up noticeably from the previous week, but down 36% from the prior 4-week average. Exports of 85,600 MT were up 68% from the previous week and 15% from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily Mexico (36,900 MT), Nicaragua (28,400 MT), Haiti (7,200 MT), Honduras (6,200 MT), and Canada (3,000 MT).